A. Lee Smith 
Federal Reserve Publications

Welcome Working Papers Academic Publications FRB-KC Publications CV


Economic Review Articles
Did the Federal Reserve Anchor Inflation Expectations Too Low? (with Brent Bundick)
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 106, Q1-2021, pp. 5-23.
Media Coverage
: Wall Street Journal  MNI Interview

Do Changes in Reserve Balances Still Influence the Federal Funds Rate?
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 104, Q1-2019, pp. 5-34.
Media Coverage
: Yahoo! Finance Interview   Reuters   MNI Interview  The Bond Buyer

Bond Premiums and the Natural Real Rate of Interest (with Craig S. Hakkio)
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 102, Q1-2017, pp. 5-40.

Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility (with Troy Davig, Nida Cakri-Melek, and Jun Nie)
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 100, Q3-2015, pp. 5-30.

Has Forward Guidance Been Effective? (with Thealexa Becker)
Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 100, Q3-2015, pp. 57-78.
Macro Bulletins and Economic Bulletins
Why Are Americans Saving So Much of Their Income?
December 2020

Data and Code Files
Media Coverage: TEN TALK Podcast     MNI Article

Policymakers Have Options for Additional Accommodation: Forward Guidance and Yield Curve Control (with Brent Bundick)
July 2020

How Many Reserves Does the Federal Reserve Need to Supply?
March 2019

Media Coverage: Reuters

Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations? (with Brent Bundick)
January 2018

Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC? (with Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford, and Emily Pollard)
June 2017

Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy Under Balance Sheet Adjustment (with Troy Davig)
May 2017


How Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect U.S. Inflation? (with Trenton Herriford, Elizabeth M. Johnson, and Nicholas Sly)
December 2016

Media Coverage: Bloomberg Story     White House Fact Sheet

How Much of the Fall in Inflation Can be Explained by Energy and Import Prices?
January 2016

Data and Code Files