- February 2022: Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford, and I have posted a new working paper,
The Term Structure of Monetary Policy. In
this paper, we argue that movements in the term structure of interest rate uncertainty around FOMC announcements cannot be summarized by a single measure but instead are two dimensional. Relative to the common single-dimensional approach, the two monetary policy uncertainty factors we derive better explain policy-induced changes in Treasury yields and provide stronger first-stage instruments in a Proxy SVAR setting. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- February 2022: Taeyoung Doh and I have revised our working paper,
A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models. In
the latest draft, we show through Monte Carlo simulations that
imposing consistency between survey and VAR-implied forecasts
for future interest rates remarkably improves the ability of a
structural VAR model to recover forward guidance shocks
identified using sign restrictions. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- January 2022: Victor Valcarcel and I have revised our working
paper, The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal
Reserve's Balance Sheet. In contrast to the experience
with quantitative easing, we find no evidence of announcement
effects from the the Fed's gradual balance sheet unwind. We do
however find evidence of implementation effects which suggest
that shrinking the balance modestly tightened financial
conditions, in part, by putting upward pressure on short- and
longer-term interest rates. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- September 2021: Brent bundick and I have revised our working paper,
Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations In
the latest draft, we provide evidence from financial markets as well as consumer surveys that inflation expectations became better anchored after the Federal Reserve began communicating a numerical inflation objective. Here is a link to the latest draft.