In my research, I study macroeconomic dynamics with an emphasis on understanding the effects of monetary policy.
I serve as a policy advisor to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President, Esther L. George.
Email
Contact
andrew.smith@kc.frb.orglee@macro-policy-research.com
My
Other Sites
- February 2022: Brent Bundick, Trenton Herriford, and I have posted a new working paper, The Term Structure of Monetary Policy. In this paper, we argue that movements in the term structure of interest rate uncertainty around FOMC announcements cannot be summarized by a single measure but instead are two dimensional. Relative to the common single-dimensional approach, the two monetary policy uncertainty factors we derive better explain policy-induced changes in Treasury yields and provide stronger first-stage instruments in a Proxy SVAR setting. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- February 2022: Taeyoung Doh and I have revised our working paper, A New Approach to Integrating Expectations into VAR Models. In the latest draft, we show through Monte Carlo simulations that imposing consistency between survey and VAR-implied forecasts for future interest rates remarkably improves the ability of a structural VAR model to recover forward guidance shocks identified using sign restrictions. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- January 2022: Victor Valcarcel and I have revised our working paper, The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet. In contrast to the experience with quantitative easing, we find no evidence of announcement effects from the the Fed's gradual balance sheet unwind. We do however find evidence of implementation effects which suggest that shrinking the balance modestly tightened financial conditions, in part, by putting upward pressure on short- and longer-term interest rates. Here is a link to the latest draft.
- September 2021: Brent bundick and I have revised our working paper, Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations In the latest draft, we provide evidence from financial markets as well as consumer surveys that inflation expectations became better anchored after the Federal Reserve began communicating a numerical inflation objective. Here is a link to the latest draft.